Predictions: Animated Feature

Most years, there is a pretty clear winner in the Animated Feature category, and this year is truly no different. Coco, which may also go down as 2017's most charming film (Paddington 2 is going to have to wait until the end of this year for that title), might as well stand unopposed. As they do in their craft and specialty, Pixar has the emotional wallop on its side. Thematically and visually, Coco is simply astounding from beginning to end and deserves its award on Oscar night.

Now, I say that confidently, but that doesn't mean its competitors have their own equally worthy merits. For example, The Breadwinner is, socially, the most conscientious film of the bunch, and its animation style is worth talking about. What it does not have (and it really shouldn't matter) is attention. The film hasn't been talked about very much, nor has it seem much of the light of day when it comes to critics' awards bodies. Put a pin in it; the animation voters need to be fairer.

Then there's The Boss Baby...well, what is there to say? We live in a country where this is an Academy Award-nominated film. That is just that. I won't pretend it has much of a chance of winning: logistically it's been an occasional nominee, never a winner. It does not have the thematic sustenance to compete with Coco. Or The Breadwinner. Or even...

Ferdinand. I stand by it, it truly does have more heft than The Boss Baby. Overall, it simply seems like a more liked film. The problem is that it seems to have been all but forgotten. Slow campaigning? Too much time between its release and the awards show? Who knows. Simply, though, Coco is just too tough a competitor no matter what.

Lastly, Loving Vincent does have memorability on its side. Narratively weaker, but the film's strengths lie in its groundbreaking fusion of studio art and film. The colors, the movement, the images overall - it's an exciting piece to be a part of. It's also more independently driven than, say, Coco, and the Academy hasn't yet warmed up to smaller animated films. Ergo, no trophies will be collected by Loving Vincent.

Prediction: Coco
Runner-Up: The Breadwinner
Preference: Coco
Missing: The LEGO Batman Movie

AFI Highlights

The American Film Institute recognized their ten best films of the year, swapping out Joe Wright's "Darkest Hour" for Patty Jenkins' Wonder Woman in comparison to yesterday's Critics Choice Awards. It's a move that shows a lot of progression in taste, although Wonder Woman probably won't be making my personal list, it's a welcome addition.

The AFI Top Ten are:

The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

The list makes one wonder if The Big Sick could muscle its way into the competition. It's also looking like Sean Baker's The Florida Project could be in good hands. Neither of these films, however, yield much else in terms of nominations. TBS should have a nomination for Holly Hunter's supporting performance; ditto for Willem Dafoe for TFP. But even their strong screenplays are going to have to push hard to crack the well-established top five (Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

All the same, these seem to spell out the highlights of the season.

Kicking Off the Awards Season on the Nose

A week or so into true awards season and the Critics Choice Awards lead it with a modest "pop" of a firecracker instead of a wallop of surprises and intrigue.

Picture

_ The Big Sick

_ Call Me By Your Name

_ Darkest Hour

_ Dunkirk

_ The Florida Project

_ Get Out

_ Lady Bird

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water
_ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Not sure what to say. Ten VERY possible nominees. On the chopping block might be The Big Sick and The Florida Project.

Director

_ Greta Gerwig ‘Lady Bird’

_ Luca Guadagnino ‘Call Me By Your Name’

_ Martin McDonagh ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri’

_ Christopher Nolan ‘Dunkirk’

_ Jordan Peele ‘Get Out’

_ Steven Spielberg ‘The Post’

_ Guillermo Del Toro ‘The Shape of Water’

Affirms these as, probably, the top seven contenders.

Actor in a Leading Role

_ Timothee Chalamet ‘Call Me By Your Name’

_ Daniel Day-Lewis ‘Phantom Thread’
_ James Franco ‘The Disaster Artist’

_ Jake Gyllenhaal ‘Stronger’

_ Tom Hanks ‘The Post’

_ Daniel Kaluuya ‘Get Out’

_ Gary Oldman ‘Darkest Hour’

Can't say I'm hopping on the Kaluuya train. Franco and Gyllenhaal are probably going to have to duke it out.

Actress

_ Jessica Chastain ‘Molly’s Game’

_ Sally Hawkins ‘The Shape of Water’

_ Frances McDormand ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

_ Margot Robbie ‘I, Tonya’

_ Saoirse Ronan ‘Lady Bird’

_ Meryl Streep ‘The Post’

Excuse me, why are there fewer Leading Actress nominees? Even if it is just by one? All are strong.

Actor in a Supporting Role
_ Willem Dafoe ‘The Florida Project’

_ Armie Hammer ‘Call Me By Your Name’

_ Richard Jenkins ‘The Shape of Water’
_ Sam Rockwell ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

_ Patrick Stewart ‘Logan’

_ Michael Stuhlbarg ‘Call Me By Your Name’

The shoutout to Stewart is gentle and kind.

Actress in a Supporting Role

_ Mary J. Blige ‘Mudbound’

_ Hong Chau ‘Downsizing’

_ Tiffany Haddish ‘Girls Trip’

_ Holly Hunter ‘The Big Sick’

_ Allison Janney ‘I, Tonya’

_ Laurie Metcalf ‘Lady Bird’

_ Octavia Spencer ‘The Shape of Water’

Finally, something to talk about! Blige will depend on the Academy's Netflix bias; Chau really upsets for even the nomination here, and Haddish really makes an entrance for herself. Wow.

Young Actor/Actress
_ Mckenna Grace ‘Gifted’

_ Dafne Keen ‘Logan’

_ Brooklynn Prince ‘The Florida Project’

_ Millicent Simmons ‘Wonderstruck’

_ Jacob Tremblay ‘Wonder’

Simmons is a most welcome inclusion here.

Acting Ensemble

_ Dunkirk

_ Lady Bird

_ Mudbound

_ The Post

_ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

SAG-worthy? Oh, quite possibly.

Adapted Screenplay

_ Call Me By Your Name

_ The Disaster Artist

_ Molly’s Game

_ Mudbound

_ Wonder

A very weak year, so I can't blame them for the shortage of nominees. Still, no The Beguiled or Last Flag Flying? Even Wonderstruck?

Original Screenplay

_ The Big Sick

_ Get Out

_ Lady Bird

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water

_ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Can't really comment here. These have been the top six for some time. The Big Sick has quite a battle ahead.

Film Editing
_ Baby Driver

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Dunkirk

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water

Baby Driver, yes! Excellent set here, but Get Out and The Last Jedi I feel are still lurking.

Cinematography
_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Call Me By Your Name

_ Dunkirk

_ Mudbound

_ The Shape of Water

Particularly adoring Mudbound here; easily a commendable set for the Academy.

Production Design and Set Decoration

_ Beauty and the Beast

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Dunkirk

_ Murder on the Orient Express

_ Phantom Thread

_ The Shape of Water

Of all the crafts, I was surprised to see Murder ahead of its costumes and makeup. Still processing what to make of the absences of Darkest Hour and The Greatest Showman, both of whom pop up in other places.

Costume Design

_ Beauty and the Beast

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Phantom Thread

_ The Shape of Water

_ Wonder Woman

Sorry, but Blade Runner is a fluke here. Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, or Murder on the Orient Express are far more likely contenders.

Makeup and Hair Design

_ Beauty and the Beast
_ Darkest Hour

_ I, Tonya

_ The Shape of Water

_ Wonder

Eternally the mixed bag, Darkest Hour is what I would call "safe."

Original Score

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Darkest Hour

_ Dunkirk

_ Phantom Thread

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water

How will the Academy make room for The Last Jedi, I wonder"? Will it?

Original Song
_ “Evermore” Beauty and the Beast

_ “Mystery of Love” Call Me By Your Name

_ “Remember Me” Coco

_ “This Is Me” The Greatest Showman

_ “Stand Up for Something” Marshall

Not a lot of mystery here. Marshall could easily give its spot to Cries for Syria or Ferdinand.

Visual Effects

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Dunkirk

_ The Shape of Water

_ Thor: Ragnarok

_ War for the Planet of the Apes

_ Wonder Woman

Take this with a grain of salt: The Last Jedi WILL make the ballot. Dunkirk, Thor, and Wonder Woman will have to watch themselves.

Animated Feature

_ The Breadwinner

_ Coco

_ Despicable Me 3

_ The LEGO Batman Movie

_ Loving Vincent

Could stay still like this for the rest of the season.

Foreign Language Film

_ BPM (Beats Per Minute)
_ A Fantastic Woman

_ First They Killed My Father

_ In the Fade

_ The Square

_ Thelma

I hold my hands up: I haven't yet familiarized myself with this category this year.

With more smaller critics bodies to come in, more clarity on the frontrunners are to come in the next few weeks. Until then...

BLADE RUNNER 2049

Replicant. The word, invented by Ridley Scott or David Peoples (one of the original writers, along with Hampton Fancher), is unconsciously synonymous with Scott’s 1982 science fiction-noir Blade Runner. It is the idea that humans can be bioengineered into something more, somehow more subservient yet far superior in ability. It brings to mind some narrative incongruencies, but for 35 years it is forgivable to not overthink. Replicants, and all you may believe about them since their birth of the first film are also lacking. They remain soulless, phenomena which some would rather experience for themselves. They model after what is already stained with imperfection, that of the human race.

The word sums up Denis Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049 surprisingly well and succinctly. It is a replica of Scott’s Blade Runner. It wants deeply to become something that is already not perfected. The 1982 original is an excellent film, but it only came to be that way through several cuts and re-releases of the film. To this day, there is only a perfection and memorability to Blade Runner because of its faults. With 2049, we get a carbon copy of the original film, enhanced in some ways, much of the same in others. It reminds one greatly of Spielberg's A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, being the journey of an android discovering his humanity. Villeneuve's film makes that a good thing, but not necessarily in every frame.

In the vision of Villeneuve, much of the Blade Runner mythos has stayed the same. The dryness, the coldness of Los Angeles has stayed intact, greatly in thanks to the designs continued by Dennis Gassner.  The city sells sex and homelessness. Even the lonely grandeur of the protagonist Officer K (Ryan Gosling) remains. The screenplay, which thrusts Fancher back into action along with Michael Green, may take a second or third viewing to masterfully decipher, but ultimately stays true to the glacial, thoughtful pace of the first. In this way, the film doesn’t take too many risks, instead ably succeeding within its safety net.

None of this is to say that there aren’t creative variations. Where Scott’s film is hands-down pulpy film noir, 2049 broadly brushes on high-intensity heat from orange and icy cold breaths of blue. The palette is a bit on the nose, but it is also an unavoidable commentary on what our generation sees and gravitates towards in film. For that, it may not be Roger Deakins’ best work, but it is no less spectacular.

2049 also contains a little more heart than head, compared to the 1982 film. Here, the divisive line is drawn predominantly for fans. Blade Runner - with years of edits and cuts considered - has always been about unlocking the humanity in the non-human. 2049 goes along with that and even goes so far as to create a deeper connection when K goes looking for an old predecessor of his, one Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford) from the first film. Building up to their meeting (which does take some time), there is great concern that Villeneuve will shift into a tone that is too nice, too tidy and connected. Strangely, I longed for that disconnect that we know and admire about Blade Runner.

The make-or-break part of the screenplay is if K’s search for heart and belonging is worthwhile and faithful to the Blade Runner legend. Speaking as a purist, first, it was a challenge to completely invest in K’s journey at times. In one way of thinking, the film is a fairly by-the-book quest of “the one,” a special someone with a gift to change or enhance the greater population. Furthermore, one becomes unsure of the relationship between K and Deckard (the nature of which I would rather not go into, to avoid spoilers, although I can assure that it is not what many will expect). Both are tremendous actors and stars, and particularly Gosling packs on many layers. Ford is also savvy in recreating old iconic roles, but Deckard never seems quite like his 1982 self. Yes, he’s gone through heavy changes, which the film will have you learn about. Ford is excellent; Deckard is subpar.

Yet I have also talked to some who never watched the original, and found 2049 sturdy and well-built to stand on its own legs. The pacing of the original has never quite been replicated in action/science fiction cinema, and Joe Walker is the perfect candidate, hot off of his mind-boggling work on Villeneuve’s Arrival from last year. In a time with tendencies towards fast, noticeable editing techniques, Walker makes Scott’s original pacing seem timely and accessible. Fresh eyes are also simply caught up in the design, the look, and the feel of the film, all of which kept me invested, albeit to varying degrees. Newcomers to the Blade Runner story are, after all, experiencing this brave new world for the first time, and it is a marvel to see such a positive impact Blade Runner still has on our cinematic culture.

I suggest giving 2049 a good 30-35 years time to decide just how good it is. It is a good film, after all. It is a bit of a Pinocchio story that does not always feel like it needs to be, but I am no less glad to be a part of its resurgence and response from new audiences.

***

OFFICIAL Oscar Predictions (Part 3 of 3)

Wrapping up these inklings on the forthcoming Oscar season, I present these last categories, the 'technical' categories. Because there are not as many as the art and craft options, I have invested a bit more time to think about them. However, selections are even more like wild accusations than predictions. It's all a part of the madness behind Oscar mania, I suppose. Here we go:

Sound Mixing

_ Beauty and the Beast

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Dunkirk
_ The Greatest Showman

_ Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi

alt. The Shape of Water

With two larger-scale musicals on hand - Beauty and the Beast and The Greatest Showman - the Academy is bound to reward one of them, right? Dunkirk, however, is probably our best bet. I do notice every year, however, that the most pronounced sound mixes tend to get noticed. Which is completely unfair; polished should always come before loud and bombastic. This does not discredit Dunkirk, with sounds so spectacular and purposeful. But something distinct and driven (no pun intended) like Baby Driver will probably be forgotten.

Sound Editing

_ Baby Driver

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Dunkirk

_ Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi

_ Wonder Woman

alt. War for the Planet of the Apes

Personally, I only a few of these scream at me. Baby Driver and Wonder Woman are definitely on the chopping block. This is not an easy category this year; so far, the options are not so much absent, but not as desirable.
If I may rant, this is a category that concerns me. What if we have come to the day where we have run out of any and all unique sound choices?

Visual Effects

_ Blade Runner 2049

_ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

_ The Shape of Water
_ Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi

_ War for the Planet of the Apes

alt. Wonder Woman

What is interesting about Wonder Woman, given its attention as a blockbuster and, by popular opinion, as the most progressive film of the year thus far, it's not greatly discussed as a big awards contender. Some rumored Best Picture and Director (for Patty Jenkins) nominations, but for whatever reason, it hasn't lasted. Even in this category, I kind of see it: the visual effects, fine and eye-catching enough for entertainment's sake, were not the best of the film industry as a whole. With that, Blade Runner, Star Wars, and War are probably the safest conclusions.

Now, I realize I could also delve into the Animated Feature, Foreign Language Feature, and Documentary Feature categories. I probably should, and most definitely will. But as I see it, it is far too premature, especially with a summer full of less-than-kid-friendly features.

* * * * *

For now, this will wrap up my predictions. If you know me, they'll change and take up new shapes as time goes on. I can't tell you how close I am to making some adjustments even while typing about finalizing my predictions. Oh, the woes of Oscar season. I would love to go on and on about how pleased I am, or about what else might change. Perhaps another time.