FIRST Official Oscar Predictions (Part 1 of 3)

Well, it's about time.

Or is it? The prestigious ceremony doesn't even premiere until March 4; half a year's time. I'm giddy just thinking about it. Okay, my friends will say, we're getting closer to the end of the year, I can see that.

Giddy isn't an October trend; it's been this way La La Land's trophy was given to Moonlight.

Unfortunately, the cinematic crop has shown a somewhat low yield. It's taken me a long time to find enough films to count on one hand that I think are great pictures, and the independent scene somehow fell too low from my radar. Plus, the near-irrefutable fact that Oscar bait is not generally released in the summertime.

We do find fortune, however, in having seen Dunkirk as a major midsummer release. Like Saving Private Ryan, it is a bold, well-crafted war drama that should get some good attention. Other great films, like Baby Driver and Wind River, will probably be mostly forgotten.

I can't remain melancholy, though, when so many great films, by so many great visionaries, are on the verge of release, and being caught up in it all again, another year, is what makes the movies (and the meticulous art/hobby of Oscar season) so splendid! Below I have my Oscar predictions for the top categories, with an alternate for each category, and a brief analysis. Let's dive in:

Picture

_ Call Me By Your Name

_ Darkest Hour

_ Dunkirk

_ The Greatest Showman

_ Lady Bird

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water

_ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

alt. 'Wonderstruck' or perhaps 'Mudbound'

Without a doubt, this is the most subjective category. I feel confident in...4, 5 of these pictures? I'm going to go on a whim and say that Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Post, and The Shape of Water are our best bets.

Director

_ Luca Guadagnino ‘Call Me By Your Name

_ Christopher Nolan ‘Dunkirk’

_ Steven Spielberg ‘The Post’

_ Guillermo Del Toro ‘The Shape of Water’

_ Joe Wright ‘Darkest Hour’

alt. Dee Rees 'Mudbound'

I felt myself running out of options on this one. I'm feeling pretty safe about these for now. Rees is dependent on the Academy's acceptance of Netflix films.

Actor in a Leading Role

_ Daniel Day-Lewis ‘Phantom Thread’

_ Tom Hanks ‘The Post’
_ Hugh Jackman ‘The Greatest Showman’

_ Gary Oldman ‘Darkest Hour’

_ Denzel Washington ‘Roman Israel, Esq.’

alt. Jake Gyllenhaal 'Stronger'

Five names, but only Oldman feels truly "safe" to me.

Actress in a Leading Role

_ Jessica Chastain ‘Molly’s Game’

_ Sally Hawkins ‘The Shape of Water’

_ Frances McDormand 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'

_ Saoirse Ronan ‘Lady Bird’

_ Meryl Streep ‘The Post’

alt. Annette Bening 'Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool'

Once again, not the most fruitful (in numbers) category, but the players are strong. Judi Dench is also one to look out for, but it's McDormand that will be the most interesting player, greatly dependent on how this film is received by the Academy.

Actor in a Supporting Role

_ Willem Dafoe ‘The Florida Project’

_ Armie Hammer ‘Call Me By Your Name’

_ Richard Jenkins 'The Shape of Water'

_ Ben Mendelsohn ‘Darkest Hour’

_ Sam Rockwell ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

alt. Michael Stuhlbarg 'Call Me By Your Name' and Jason Mitchell 'Mudbound'

Again, this will depend on how the Academy receives Netflix films. Could be a game-changing year! The reason I have highlighted two alternates is that Stuhlbarg, rumored to be a top-tier contender in this category, could also fall victim to the consequences of co-supporting campaigning, which would only cancel out the film's chances of winning. Plus, I would think Hammer has the showier role.

Actress in a Supporting Role

_ Allison Janney ‘I, Tonya’

_ Melissa Leo ‘Novitate’

_ Laurie Metcalf ‘Lady Bird’

_ Michelle Pfeiffer ‘Mother!’

_ Kristin Scott Thomas ‘Darkest Hour’

alt. Holly Hunter 'The Big Sick'

An interesting category, because despite great buzz on all of these, no one has really seen these films.

Adapted Screenplay

_ Call Me By Your Name

_ The Disaster Artist
_ Last Flag Flying

_ Molly’s Game

_ Wonderstruck

alt. Mudbound

Outside of these five, there are hardly any contenders. This is the best I could come up with. One thing to note, however, is that Darkest Hour is on the chopping block between Adapted and Original.

Original Screenplay

_ Darkest Hour

_ Lady Bird

_ The Post

_ The Shape of Water

_ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

alt. The Big Sick

I went with these five because it doesn't sound like Downsizing with being the great Payne-ian comedy we all hoped for. Three Billboards and The Big Sick will be very close right now.

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Tune in for Part 2, where we will more finely observe the craft categories.